Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
